The Effect of the Contestable Period on Experience Analysis

In developing mortality rates, actuaries smoothly increase rates by age and duration. We accept that some anomalies appear in the early adult years; however, for the majority of issue ages, we have a rather strong notion of the shape of the mortality curve. As a result we build experience studies using smooth expected mortality rates that consequently reduce volatility.

This result is intuitive and may be correct. However, it may not be the best basis on which to set expected mortality.

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